On March 1, the China Soda Ash Industry Association held a symposium to inform the production and operation of the soda ash industry in 2009, analyze and look forward to the development trend in 2010, and communicate with relevant industry associations about the supply and demand of soda ash. China Daily Glass Association Vice chairman and secretary-general Liu Jianping, China Building and Industrial Glass Association, China washing products Industry Association, China Salt Industry Association, Aluminum Corporation of China and other units of leadership invited to attend the meeting.
President of China Soda Ash Industry Association Di Tongli chaired the meeting, and Secretary General Wang Xiling first introduced the relevant situation of the production and operation of soda ash industry.
I. Production and operation of soda ash industry in 2009
2009 was the most difficult year in the history of soda ash, highlighted by overcapacity, reduced demand, falling product prices, and serious losses across the industry.
1, in 2009, the country's cumulative production of soda ash 18.72 million tons, an increase of 420,000 tons over 2008, an increase of 2.3%, is the least growth in the past 10 years. Domestic consumption of soda ash 16.43 million tons, an increase of 230,000 tons over 2008, an increase of 1.4%, is also the least growth in the past 10 years. Exports of soda ash 2.32 million tons, 190,000 tons more than in 2008, is the highest export record of soda ash.
2, soda ash production increased quarter by quarter, the fourth quarter output reached 5.13 million tons, the average monthly output of 1.71 million tons, a record high quarterly output and average monthly output.
3. Soda ash production capacity reached the lowest level in history, and production capacity fluctuation reached the largest level in history. The production load of soda ash in the first, second, third and fourth quarters was 72%, 83%, 85% and 89% respectively, of which the first quarter was the lowest level of production capacity in history. After the second quarter, as domestic demand began to pick up, soda ash production load also increased, although soda ash consumption continues to grow, but the growth of soda ash production has always exceeded the growth of consumption, soda ash market production is greater than the pattern of sales has not changed, production capacity volatility hit the largest in history.
4, soda ash exports and export prices fell quarter by quarter, exports in the fourth quarter than the first quarter of 148,100 tons, the cumulative average export price fell 89.78 US dollars/ton in the same period in 2008, a decline of 33.54%.
5, the market price of soda ash has dropped significantly compared with 2008, the average price of light alkali throughout the year is 1200 yuan/ton, the lowest price is 900 yuan/ton; The average price of heavy alkali is 1300 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is 1000 yuan/ton.
6, light and heavy alkali price upside down. Since the second half of 2009, the demand for heavy soda ash has increased significantly, but because the increase in the production of heavy soda ash exceeds the increase in demand, the pattern of market production is greater than sales has not been alleviated, so there is a rare anomaly, the market price of heavy soda ash is lower than light soda ash, and this anomaly has continued until the end of the year.
7, the whole industry suffered serious losses. 2009 is the soda ash industry the most difficult year, its main sign is the history of the rare industry-wide losses, large, medium and small enterprises, ammonia alkali, hydrazine, trona almost total losses, small and medium-sized enterprises loss of tens of millions of yuan, large enterprises loss of hundreds of millions of yuan, the loss of a record.
Second, the development trend of soda ash industry in 2010
1. The overall trend in 2010 will be better than in 2009. Soda ash production, sales, and prices will be higher than in 2009, and the industry-wide loss situation will be significantly improved. The basis of its judgment is that under the incentive of the central government's policy measures to maintain growth, the rapid recovery and development of the economy is the biggest favorable factor for each industry; Second, the real estate price rise, the stock market rebound, the automobile market boom, the soda industry is extremely favorable; Third, in the general situation of economic recovery, the demand for raw materials in the downstream industry will inevitably exceed the most difficult 2009, and will inevitably pull the recovery and development of the soda ash industry.
2, by the end of 2009, soda ash has 24 million tons of capacity, such as capacity utilization of 85%, soda ash production will exceed 20 million tons. Due to the significant increase in demand for soda ash due to economic recovery, soda ash production and sales will be higher than in 2009.
3, the increase in the production cost of soda ash and steel support will force the market price of soda ash to rise, the sales price will be higher than in 2009, and the industry-wide loss situation will be significantly improved. It is expected that the average price of young alkali in 2010 is 1250-1550 yuan/ton, and the average price of heavy alkali is 1350-1700 yuan/ton.
4, the main uncertain factors are: first, affected by multiple factors, it is expected that exports will decrease; Second, production capacity boosts production, but demand can keep up, whether the cloud of production is greater than sales will return, or phased impact on the market, it is difficult to determine; Third, the uncertainty of rising cost pressure; Fourth, it is difficult to determine the indirect impact of the state's regulation of land and real estate policies on the soda ash industry.
At the symposium, comrades from various units introduced the relevant situation of their respective industries. Liu Jianping, vice chairman and Secretary general of China Daily Glass Association, thanked the soda Ash Association for introducing the situation of the briefing, and the symposium has enhanced the understanding and communication between the upstream and downstream industries, and is a good working mechanism for strengthening ties between industries. The daily glass industry is a large user of soda, and the amount of soda ash in the whole industry accounted for 19% of the total domestic consumption of soda ash in 2009. The vast majority of the daily glass industry is a small and medium-sized production enterprises, and for continuous production, in order to ensure the normal operation of production and logistics, the normal turnover of funds, although the production enterprises have a certain inventory of soda ash, but not very large. China Daily Glass Association hopes that the soda ash industry can fully consider the production characteristics of the daily glass industry, protect the interests of small and medium users, maintain the stability of soda ash production and supply, and avoid fluctuations in market prices. At the same time, it is hoped that soda ash production enterprises and daily glass production enterprises to establish a stable supply chain strategic partnership, according to the actual situation of the enterprise, carefully study the market changes, mutual benefit, win-win cooperation, and overall arrangements for the production of enterprises.
